Nationwide Covid-19 infection rate estimates from the Utah Health & Economic Recovery (HERO) Project
Produced by the Marriner S. Eccles Institute for Economics and Quantitative Analysis in collaboration with the David Eccles School of Business, the University of Utah Medical School, and University of Utah Health.
Latest Utah Hero Project Research
Through their work on the Utah HERO Project, Marriner S. Eccles Institute faculty have produced a wealth of research that can inform both public health and economic policies moving forward. These studies will be made available below as they are completed.
Random sampling suggests about 40% of Utah COVID-19 infections are detected by official tests – much more than in other states.
Results from random, representative COVID-19 testing across four Utah counties suggest about 40% of COVID-19 cases are detected by current testing measures and 0.81% of Utahns age 12 or older in the four-county area have COVID-19 antibodies. While about 0.3% of infections, detected or undetected, result in death, certain vulnerable communities have higher infection rates.
True nationwide prevalence of COVID-19 is two to three times higher than publicly reported
Using data from a representative randomized field study of nearly 10,000 individuals in Utah, faculty are able to predict COVID-19 infections before they occur. By extending their methodology to all 50 states, they show that the true nationwide prevalence of COVID-19—as measured by the share of the population with antibodies—is 2 to 3 times higher than reported case numbers that rely on limited testing of those who seek out a test.
A state-by-state look at the costs and benefits of social distancing policies
Using a model that estimates how contagious social interactions are by state, faculty find that information-based voluntary social distancing has saved three times as many lives as mandatory lockdowns. Still, the negative effects driven by contagion through social interactions are large enough that a lockdown response could have been 25% less costly for the median state and still saved an equivalent number of lives.
Marriner S. Eccles Institute Faculty
Maclean Gaulin Assistant Professor of Accounting, Marriner S. Eccles Institute David Eccles School of Business
Adam Looney
Visiting Professor, Marriner S. Eccles Institute
David Eccles School of Business
Nathan Seegert
Assistant Professor of Finance, Marriner S. Eccles Institute
David Eccles School of Business
MJ (Mu-Jeung) Yang
Visiting Assistant Professor, Marriner S. Eccles Institute
David Eccles School of Business
Utah Health and School of Medicine Faculty and Staff
Stephen Alder
Professor, Family and Preventive Medicine
University of Utah Health
Director of Field Operations for Utah HERO
Tom Greene
Chief, Division of Biostatistics
Professor, Division of Epidemiology
University of Utah Health
Morgan Millar
Research Assistant Professor, Internal Medicine
University of Utah Health
Brian Orleans
Biostatician, University of Utah School of Medicine
Andrew T. Pavia, MD
Chief, Division of Pediatric Infectious Diseases
Professor, Pediatric Infectious Diseases
University of Utah Health
Angela Presson
Research Associate Professor, Division of Epidemiology
University of Utah Health
Matthew Samore, MD
Chief, Epidemiology Division
Professor, Epidemiology Division
University of Utah Health
Jincheng Shen
Assistant Professor, Population Health Sciences
University of Utah Health
Kristina Stratford
Clinical Research Coordinator, University of Utah School of Medicine
Yue Zhang
Research Associate Professor, Population Health Sciences
University of Utah Health
About the HERO Project
Critical Coronavirus Information for Utah Communities
The HERO project, which launched in early May, 2020, aims to provide Utah’s citizens and policymakers with real-time data to inform coronavirus response measures.
The project consists of two phases. Phase One involved the testing of 10,000 Utahns in four counties to determine what share of Utahns possessed antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Phrase Two will extend the same work to Utah’s other counties, assess communities that may have high viral activity, focus on students/children to help guide best practices for returning to school, and monitor changes in antibody prevalence over time.
HERO Phase One Findings
Phase one of the two-phase project concluded in early July. After sampling 10,000 Utahns from across four counties, faculty concluded that about 1 in 100 residents of these counties showed evidence of prior infection. This amounts to a 4-county seroprevalence rate of 0.81%.
While this low seroprevalence rate and relatively high detection fraction indicate that Utah’s early efforts to monitor and limit SARS-CoV-2 infections were successful, it also indicates that Utah’s population remains highly susceptible to COVID-19.