Prosecutor turnover leads to fewer deaths by police officers without increasing risk to officers or resulting in “de-policing” of communities.
Prosecutor turnover leads to fewer deaths by police officers without increasing risk to officers or resulting in “de-policing” of communities.
A new working paper from researchers at the University of Utah’s Marriner S. Eccles Institute for Economics and Quantitative Analysis and Stanford’s Democracy and Polarization Lab finds strong evidence across 2,315 U.S. districts that the election of a new district attorney (DA) led to a 17% reduction in the number of deaths caused by police officers from 2013 through 2020. When election outcomes were particularly close, officer-related deaths decreased by 40% after a new DA ousted an incumbent.
Importantly, the empirical evidence suggests that police officers respond to new prosecutors by de-escalating potentially violent situations rather than ‘de-policing’. The authors find no evidence officers were assaulted or killed at higher rates as civilian deaths decreased, and they observed no changes in property crimes, violent crimes, or arrests in the years following the election of a new DA.
Breaking down the decrease in deaths by race, the authors find no significant differences across racial and ethnic groups. When a DA is ousted by an incumbent in a close race, for example, they find deaths of white individuals decrease by 40% and deaths of Black individuals decrease by 38%.
Informing policies to reduce use of police force
While there is mixed evidence as to whether police body cameras reduce use of force, the new findings support efforts by several states to require outside investigators to intervene in cases of officer-related deaths. [1]
The findings also support efforts to ban police union contributions to DA campaigns. Currently, no such regulations exist, and information about contributions to DA campaigns is not always readily available.
Finally, given the large reduction in deaths (40%) in close elections, the authors note that electoral competition in DA elections could drastically improve police accountability.
Background on police violence
The decision of whether or not to charge a police officer with a crime often falls on the local prosecutor. In state court districts, DAs are the highest-ranking prosecutors. Importantly, DAs are elected officials in 45 states and 2,315 districts.
Nationwide, approximately 1,000 people die each year in an officer-related incident. In the fifteen-year period from 2005 to 2019, 104 non-federal police officers were arrested for manslaughter or murder and 35 were convicted.[2]
How prosecutors affect police use of force
Though the authors say it’s unclear exactly how the election of a new DA impacts the number of deaths caused by police, they note that their results are statistically significant regardless of the new DAs political party. This suggests conflicts of interest and uncertainty (what police officers can predict about DA behavior) likely play a large role in explaining their findings.
They note the following:
- When a new prosecutor is elected, it marks the end of the relationship between the incumbent prosecutor and the police department, eliminating any conflicts of interest that may have arisen over time.
- From a police officer’s perspective, a new DA introduces greater uncertainty over prosecutorial decisions. This uncertainty alone may lead to less risky police behavior and less frequent use of force.
- Finally, a new DA may introduce reforms explicitly aimed at changing police behavior. There is some suggestive evidence that reform-minded DAs bring about a larger decline in civilian deaths than other DAs.
The authors write: “Whether through policy change, disrupting conflicts of interest, or simply by introducing uncertainty, the election of a new DA might incentivize more cautious police behavior and decrease deaths caused by police.”
[1] California, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, New York, Utah, and Wisconsin have each passed legislation requiring either a state agency or outside investigator to intervene in cases of officer-related deaths.
[2] https://scholarworks.bgsu.edu/crim_just_pub/101/
About the authors at the University of Utah
Allison Stashko is an Assistant Professor in the Finance Department at the David Eccles School of Business and the Marriner S. Eccles Institute for Economics and Quantitative Analysis at the University of Utah.